A new study has developed a predictive model for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) following the mass terror attack on October 7th, 2023, and the subsequent Israel-Hamas war. The research determined that approximately 5.3% of the population, or about 519,923 individuals, may develop PTSD due to these events. This model serves as a vital tool for preparing mental health interventions and can be adapted for future mass trauma situations globally.

A new study led by PhD student Dana Katsoty from the Psychology Department at the Hebrew University, alongside Michal Greidinger from University of Haifa, in collaboration with Prof Yuval Neria from Columbia University, Prof. Ido Lurie from Tel Aviv University and Shalvata Mental Health Center and Dr. Aviv Segev from Tel Aviv University and Shalvata Mental Health Center and Kings College London, has developed a predictive model for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in the aftermath of the mass terror attack on October 7th, 2023, and the subsequent Israel-Hamas war. This period marked by intense conflict has deeply affected the national psyche, highlighting the need for reliable predictive tools for mental health interventions.

The terror attack by Hamas militants on October 7th, 2023, marked the beginning of a profound national crisis in Israel, leading to widespread trauma and significant mental health challenges across the country. The primary objective of this research was to create a model that can predict the prevalence of PTSD in the aftermath of trauma exposure across different segments of the Israeli population based on their exposure levels to the trauma.

The research team categorized the Israeli population into six distinct groups depending on their exposure to the conflict: direct exposure to terror, close-proximity to terror, involvement of soldiers in combat and support units, intense and moderate exposure to rocket attacks, and communities indirectly affected. Utilizing national databases, the team estimated the size of each group, conducted a literature review to derive PTSD prevalence rates, and performed a random-effects meta-analysis for the prevalence of PTSD in each group.

The findings suggest that approximately 5.3% of the Israeli population, or about 519,923 individuals, may develop PTSD as a result of the terror attack and the conflict, with a prediction interval ranging from 160,346 to 879,502. The study emphasizes the substantial mental health impact of such mass trauma and provides a crucial tool for policymakers, clinicians, and researchers. This model not only facilitates the planning and implementation of necessary mental health interventions but also has the potential to serve as a framework for addressing future mass trauma incidents worldwide.

This predictive model for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) presents a pivotal opportunity for policy action. Following the mass terror attack and subsequent war, proactive measures are imperative. Policy recommendations should prioritize resource allocation for mental health services, including increased funding for counseling, therapy programs, and psychiatric care. As the need across the population is expected to be substantial, there is a pressing need for the adoption of comprehensive, system-wide models facilitating large-scale interventions. Such models should incorporate evidence-based group therapies, short-term individual protocols, initiatives for prevention and early intervention, and the utilization of digital technologies for monitoring and management of mental health symptoms. Governments should invest in training programs for mental health professionals to enhance their ability to identify and treat PTSD effectively. Integrating predictive models into disaster preparedness plans can assist in implementation of mental health interventions following mass trauma events, while global collaboration facilitates knowledge sharing and best practices for addressing mental health needs on a broader scale.

The research paper titled “A Prediction Model of PTSD in the Israeli Population in the Aftermath of October 7th, 2023, Terrorist Attack and the Israel-Hamas War” is now available in medRxiv and can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.02.25.24303235.

Researchers:

Dana Katsoty¹, Michal Greidinger², Yuval Neria^3,4, Aviv Segev^5,6,7, Ido Lurie^5,6

Institutions:

1. Psychology Department, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel
2. Department of Counseling and Human Development, Faculty of Education, University of Haifa, Israel
3. Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, New York
4. New York State Psychiatric Institute, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York
5. Shalvata Mental Health Center, Hod Hasharon, Israel
6. School of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Israel
7. Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, Kings College London, UK

The Hebrew University of Jerusalem is Israel's premier academic and research institution. Serving over 23,000 students from 80 countries, the University produces nearly 40% of Israel’s civilian scientific research and has received over 11,000 patents. Faculty and alumni of the Hebrew University have won eight Nobel Prizes and a Fields Medal. For more information about the Hebrew University, please visit http://new.huji.ac.il/en. 

(photo credit: DALL-E, AI)